AGP Executive Report

Energy Security & Gas Storage: ANRE says Moldova can’t buy and stock big gas volumes when prices are lowest due to limited storage and infrastructure, with options like storing in Ukraine or Romania facing practical constraints. Water Crisis: The Dniester keeps dropping; Novodnistrovsk reservoir inflow is far below releases, pushing authorities to prepare reserve wells and crisis measures as drought risk grows. Electricity Market Pressure: Prime Minister Tofan links potential power-tariff pressure to the Danube drying up and lower nuclear/hydro output, while pointing to renewables and storage as balancing factors. Agriculture & Logistics: Government plans an expanded meeting with farmers on priority rail transit for Ukrainian grain, aiming to protect the local market while boosting CFM revenues. Transport Regulation: Moldova will connect its motor-carrier registry to the EU road transport register (ERRU) to improve monitoring and data exchange. Turkey–Moldova Investment Push: PM Tofan met Turkish lawmakers; Turkey has backed 500+ projects in Moldova, with most in Gagauzia, and both sides discussed new production and energy investments. US Support: Sandu and a US Congress delegation discussed hybrid threats and energy/infrastructure cooperation, including the Strașeni–Gutinaș power line. Transnistria Economic/Legal Harmonization: Working groups from Chisinau and Tiraspol discussed uniform customs, tax, and environmental rules, including VAT/excise application and EU steel quota implementation. Fuel Supply Rules: Government approved clearer rules for storing petroleum products for emergency stocks, with authorized facilities, separate records, and monitoring.

Water Crisis Watch: Moldova’s Dniester situation keeps worsening, with the Novodnistrovsk reservoir losing reserves as inflows stay far below releases; authorities are preparing reserve wells and alternative supply while monitoring rainfall forecasts. Energy & Power Supply: Romania shut down its last operational Cernavodă nuclear reactor after record-low Danube levels threatened cooling water, adding pressure to regional electricity markets; in Chisinau, PM Vasile Tofan says tariff hikes are not being discussed yet, while Energocom plans gas supply for Termoelectrica through April 2027. Grain Transit & Agriculture: Moldova is pushing to keep revenues by involving CFM in Ukrainian grain transit, while the government schedules an expanded meeting with farmers to protect local market interests; separate updates track grain price trends and feed/food wheat movements. EU Integration & Transport Rules: Moldova will connect its motor carrier registry to the EU ERRU system, improving data on operators, vehicles, and serious violations. Turkey Investment Drive: PM Tofan met Turkish lawmakers on boosting investments, production capacities, and support for Gagauzia, where most Turkish-backed projects are concentrated. Public Sector Pay: The government postponed public wage increases to Jan 1, 2027, with one-off compensation planned for October. World Bank Pipeline: Chisinau discussed continued World Bank support across energy resilience, water, agriculture, and public services, with a portfolio of 14 operations worth €735.4m.

Rail & Grain Politics: Moldova’s Prime Minister Vasile Tofan will hold an expanded meeting with farmers on Aug. 20 to secure priority rail access for Moldovan producers and prevent Ukrainian grain transit from squeezing the local market, after complaints tied to the 50% transit tariff cut. Energy Security: The government approved clearer rules for storing petroleum products for emergency stocks, with authorized facilities, separate records and continuous monitoring to protect supply during disruptions. Power Grid Upgrade: Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu pushed for the technical steps needed to start commercial operation of the 400 kV Vulcănești–Chișinău line, with testing and energization of key equipment in focus. Renewables Auction: Moldova selected 170 MW of onshore wind projects, each required to include battery storage, aiming to stabilize the grid and boost green generation. Fuel Shortage Context: Authorities say fuel stocks are sufficient for the heating season, while shortages at gas stations are gradually improving. Bilateral Trade: Moldova and Kazakhstan are preparing the next intergovernmental commission meeting, prioritizing trade, energy and transport amid a decline in 2025 trade volume. Border & Security: President Maia Sandu said some drones enter Moldovan airspace deliberately, and Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi linked a Talmaza drone crash to Russia’s wider war spillover. Health Regulation Controversy: Moldova’s “borderline products” reform is set to be revised after criticism over favoritism and links to a single company. EU Enlargement Watch: EU officials point to Iceland’s Aug. 29 referendum as a potential boost for enlargement optics, with Moldova among aspiring candidates.

Energy Infrastructure: Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu says teams are finishing the Vulcănești–Chișinău 400 kV line so it can start commercial operation soon, with testing and energization of key equipment in focus. Renewables & Power Market: Moldova picked 170 MW of onshore wind projects in its latest auction, with mandatory battery storage and bids clustered around ~1.24–1.25 lei/kWh. Transport & Trade: Moldova cut rail transit tariffs for Ukrainian cargo, aiming to shift freight flows toward Reni and make the port more competitive for grain and bulk shipments. Border Security: President Maia Sandu says some drones enter Moldovan airspace deliberately, urging stronger support for Ukraine as the most effective response. Defense Incident: Police preliminarily link a Talmaza drone crash to a turbojet “drone-missile” type, while Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi warns Russia’s attacks endanger Moldova’s neutrality and citizens. Health & Pharma Governance: Moldova’s “borderline products” reform is set to be revised after questions over favoritism and pharmaceutical interests. Regional Economy: Moldova and Kazakhstan plan to intensify an intergovernmental commission agenda as trade fell in 2025. Agriculture: Table grape harvest is expected average to slightly above average, with irrigation still a key export constraint. Energy Compensation: Sandu confirms winter compensation will continue, prioritizing low-income households depending on budget and partner support. Governance & Integrity: Investigations flag PAS Youth officials getting public jobs/contracts without open recruitment or procurement. Tourism: Foreign tourist numbers rose in the first half of the year, though average stays shortened.

PAS Youth Jobs Probe: Moldova Curata reports a PAS youth vice president was hired in the Culture Minister’s cabinet while still a first-year student, then received contracts from multiple ministries and a state institution without open recruitment or public procurement. Energy Market Reform: A NEOS Advisory roadmap outlines how electricity systems can move from state single-buyer models toward more competitive, integrated markets—plus the risks policymakers should watch. Security Spillover from Ukraine: Moldova condemned an airspace violation near Talmaza after an aerial object exploded; police preliminarily say fragments resemble a turbojet drone-missile. Transnistria Industry & Pollution: An exclusive report alleges the Rîbnița Metallurgical Plant is poisoning locals as it restarts and turns into a scrap-like operation. Fuel Supply Watch: ANRE says shortages persist at some stations (75 without diesel, 27 without gasoline) but are easing as imports rise and reserves build. Water Stress: Moldova reports the Dniester Reservoir at a historic low, urging conservation as inflows drop and discharge remains reduced. Agriculture & EU Pressure: A new analysis on EU enlargement highlights how agriculture is central—and difficult—in the EU accession process for Ukraine and Moldova. Local Environment Works: Braniște commune (Râșcani) rehabilitated wells, springs, and waste systems with community involvement and separate plastic collection platforms.

Teachers’ Pay Uncertainty: President Maia Sandu says the promised September 1 teacher salary rise is still missing full funding, blaming shocks like energy price hikes and saying the Government will bring solutions soon. Russia-Moldova Security Incidents: Ukraine reports a Russian “Banderol” loitering munition crossed into Moldova and an explosion was recorded near Tălmaza; Moldova confirms an unidentified object entered airspace and investigators are checking wreckage. Ukraine Grain Transit Pressure: Sandu backs continued Ukrainian grain transit despite farmer concerns, while the Government plans talks with farmers and Moldovan Railways on how to keep the sector protected. Dniester Water Stress: Moldova reports record-low reservoir levels, warning the ecosystem and water supply are at risk as inflows fall and Ukraine reduces discharge. Fuel Supply Watch: ANRE says shortages at some stations are temporary—75 without diesel and 27 without gasoline—while stocks and imports are improving. Business Deregulation Push: Moldova is preparing a large-scale deregulation package, proposing changes across dozens of laws and permits affecting multiple sectors. Energy & Infrastructure: Meter checks for electricity and gas could be extended to cut distribution costs; Moldova also selected 170MW wind projects with required battery storage. Macro Outlook: Moldova downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% amid geopolitical and energy-price uncertainty. EU Integration for Left Bank Trade: VAT/excise rules for goods imported into Moldova will be standardized gradually, with an information session held for businesses on both sides of the Dniester.

Hydrology Watch: The flow into Moldova’s Novodnistrovsk reservoir has fallen to a historic low (23 m³/s), with Environment Minister Gheorghe Hajder warning of ecosystem damage and risks to water supply if the trend continues. Energy & Costs: Moldova’s gas tariff review is moving fast: ANRE is set to consider a near-half increase for household supply (from 13.353 to 18.798 lei per m³, excluding VAT) after Energocom cited higher European procurement prices. Jobs & Skills: The National Employment Agency says it has placed over 15,000 unemployed people into jobs since the start of 2026, with about 12,000 vacancies open now, including roles for engineers and technicians. EU Integration Narrative: On Moldova’s 35th independence anniversary, Deputy PM Eugeniu Osmochescu said the next step is full integration into the European economy. Security Spillover: A Spanish NATO F-18 shot down a drone that entered Romanian airspace from near Moldova, underscoring how regional conflict dynamics keep touching Moldova’s neighborhood. Industry Shock (Regional): Ukraine’s drone campaign hit logistics and heavy industry deep inside Russia, including a major Wildberries warehouse fire near Moscow—another reminder of how supply chains and warehousing are becoming frontline targets.

Cross-Border Air Security: A Spanish NATO F-18 shot down a suspected Russian drone after it breached Romanian airspace, with radar tracking it entering from Moldova—another reminder that the Ukraine war’s air campaign is spilling into NATO’s eastern flank. Logistics Under Fire: Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone barrages into Russia, hitting Moscow-region warehouses including Wildberries’ Koledino hub (about 250,000 sq m), while Russia said it intercepted 822 drones overnight. Industrial Fallout: Russian strikes hit Ukraine’s major steel output at ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, partially halting operations after damage to key production facilities; Kyiv also reported fires and casualties in multiple districts. Energy & Supply Pressure: The attacks are increasingly targeting production and distribution nodes—grain ports near the Danube and missile-fuel-related facilities—raising risks for regional trade flows that Moldova depends on. Hybrid Threats: A New York Times report says Russia has recruited Orthodox priests as intelligence assets in Moldova to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank.

Air Security: A Spanish F-18 on NATO air policing shot down a drone that breached Romanian airspace, with radars showing it entered from neighboring Moldova near Galați; debris reportedly fell in an uninhabited area. Sanctions & Trade: Moldova joined the EU’s extended sanctions against Iran tied to support for Russia’s aggression, aligning national policies with the bloc’s decision. Payments & Consumer Tech: Non-cash payments in Moldova rose by nearly a third, reflecting faster card adoption and cashless infrastructure—alongside calls for tighter personal finance vigilance. Energy Transition: Moldova approved wind farm projects totaling 170 MW, each required to include battery energy storage; separately, ANRE proposed a higher household gas tariff (to 18.79 lei/m³ excluding VAT). Renewables Investments: VIM Energy Systems won a battery park contract for CET-Nord, targeting completion in 1Q27. Agriculture & Exports: Moldova exported 311,600 tons of corn in Jan–Jul 2026 (about double last year), with July shipments led by Lebanon and notably moved mainly by rail. Local Infrastructure: Chisinau advanced road works on major streets under the “Chisinau – City Roads” project, including asphalt, lighting, utilities, and bike-lane “green corridor” upgrades. Industry Protection: Moldova’s commission will investigate sugar and cement imports for potential harm to domestic producers.

Energy & Renewables: Moldova approved seven wind projects totaling 170 MW, each required to add battery storage (44 MW minimum) to boost renewables and grid flexibility. Energy Costs: ANRE proposed raising household gas tariffs from 13.35 to 18.79 lei per cubic meter (excluding VAT), with consultations set for Aug 19. Power Infrastructure: VIM Energy won a turnkey battery park contract for state-owned CET-Nord, targeting completion in 1Q27. EU Integration & Local Economy: Moldova’s education admissions show 80% uptake of state-funded university spots, with remaining places in engineering, agriculture, construction and security. Agriculture & Trade: Corn exports hit 311,600 tons in Jan–Jul, with July shipments led by Lebanon and notably moved mainly by rail. Food Industry Oversight: Moldova will investigate sugar and cement imports to check whether they harm domestic producers. Business & Innovation: A Moldova HiTech Park plan was presented in Stăuceni, aiming to attract about €600M in investment. Energy Storage Policy: CET-Nord and Energocom-related storage initiatives keep moving forward as Moldova expands renewables capacity by 93.9 MW in H1. Education Funding: Romania will fund diaspora-run business projects via a €100M program with loan-linked grants for startups. Urban Infrastructure: Chisinau renovated three central streets under the “Chisinau – City Roads” phase, upgrading roads, lighting, utilities and sidewalks.

EU Integration & Security: Moldova’s EU path stayed in focus as Brussels weighs how an enlarged bloc would work, while Russia-linked incidents kept pressure high after a combat drone exploded near the Ukraine border and another crossed Moldovan airspace. Trade & Customs: Moldova held an info session for agents on both Dniester banks on VAT and excise rules for imports, with tax exemptions set to phase out gradually. Agriculture & Imports: The government drafted a plan to investigate sugar and cement imports for possible anti-dumping or safeguard measures. Energy & Prices: ANRE proposed a gas tariff jump for households (to 18.79 lei/m³, excluding VAT), as Moldova also expanded renewables by nearly 94 MW in H1 and advanced battery storage deals. Renewables & Storage: A 170 MW wind tender included mandatory battery storage, and CET-Nord is moving ahead with a BESS contract for 2027. Infrastructure & Investment: Plans for a Moldova HiTech Park in Stăuceni target about €600 million in investment, while mayors discussed funding mechanisms for merged localities. Transport for Ukraine: Moldova agreed a 50% rail freight discount for Ukrainian cargo through CFM, aiming to support exporters without harming local markets. Wine & Food Industry: The Author Wine Festival returns Sept 4–6 with 40 small producers, highlighting Moldova’s fresh push in niche food exports.

Energy & Grid Resilience: Moldova is moving fast on storage and renewables: the Energy Ministry approved 170 MW of onshore wind plus 44 MW battery storage, while CET-Nord is buying a battery system via a turnkey contract for delivery by Q1 2027; separately, Moldova added 93.9 MW of renewables in H1 2026 (mostly solar) and is in talks with Norway on more storage and household efficiency support. Household Costs: ANRE proposes a gas tariff jump for households from 13.35 to 18.79 lei/m³ (excl. VAT), with consultations set for Aug 19. Local Development & Infrastructure: Mayors from northern merged localities met the Government to plan how “Incentive 2” (3,000 lei per inhabitant) will fund roads, water, lighting, energy efficiency and social infrastructure starting in 2027. Innovation & Investment: A Moldova HiTech Park plan was presented in Stăuceni, targeting about €600M in investment, with labs, digital services and a future state data center. Green Procurement: The Finance Ministry ran a workshop for auditors on applying “green” public procurement using price-quality and life-cycle cost logic. Agri-Food & Trade: Moldova secured €150M from the EIB for Livada Moldovei II to boost horticulture and rural competitiveness; on transit, Moldova confirmed the 50% rail discount applies only to Ukrainian goods bound for external markets, while farmers are pushing back on VAT and import licensing concerns. Wine & Tourism: The Author Wine Festival returns Sept 4–6 with 40 small producers, masterclasses and tastings. Inflation Watch: The NBM warns inflation may peak near 9.2% in Q4 2026 before easing in 2027–2028.

Energy & Renewables: Moldova added 93.90 MW of renewable capacity in the first half of 2026, reaching 1,074.74 MW installed. Solar leads with 793.38 MW (74%), followed by wind at 256.22 MW (24%), while prosumers now total 9,927 and hold 220.40 MW. Energy Storage Push: Norway is discussing support priorities with Moldova’s energy authorities, focusing on battery energy storage systems (BESS) and the EcoVoucher efficiency program, including a loan-guarantee and interest-partial coverage mechanism. Grid Stress from Drought: Romania’s drought forced Nuclearelectrica to shut down its last working Cernavoda reactor, raising concerns for Moldova’s power supply as imports become harder and pricier. Agriculture & Trade Routes: The EU is considering a €220m non-repayable aid request for Ukrainian farmers, while Moldova keeps facilitating “solidarity lanes” and agreed a 50% rail transit discount for Ukrainian goods to external markets. Farmers vs Government: Farmers’ Force leaders plan to meet PM Vasile Tofan over grain purchase prices, import licensing, transit rules, and a possible 50% VAT increase—while criticizing the meeting format for excluding more farmers. Aquaculture Strategy: Moldova published its Strategic Programme for Aquaculture 2026–2030 in the Official Journal, targeting modernization, water-body mapping, hatchery upgrades, and stronger processing and market promotion. Tech & Investment: A high-tech park plan was presented in Stauceni, aiming to attract €600m in investment and build an innovation hub with labs, digital development areas, and a future state data center. Local Economy & Tax: Rental income tax revenues from individuals rose 33.7% to 70.1m lei in seven months, as more rental agreements were registered and unregistered contracts were identified. Inflation Outlook: Moldova’s NBM expects inflation to rise toward 9.2% in Q4 2026 before easing in 2027. Infrastructure: Work on the Chisinau–Straseni–Calarasi water main is nearing completion, with over 47 km of pipeline installed and a pumping station progressing.

Energy & Water Security: Romania’s Cernavoda nuclear plant shut Unit 2 as Danube drought worsens, cutting about 1,400 MW and raising pressure on regional power prices that Moldova depends on. Inflation Watch: Moldova’s National Bank forecasts inflation climbing to 9.2% in Q4 2026 before easing, with fuel and regulated prices driving the rise. Agri-Food & Logistics: Moldova agreed to a 50% rail transit discount for Ukrainian goods and targets up to 600,000 tons via rail by end-2026, aiming to protect farmers/exporters while keeping “Solidarity Lanes” moving. EU Finance for Farming: Moldova secured €150m from the EIB for Livada Moldovei II to boost horticulture, processing, irrigation, and digitalization through banks and public research/education support. Energy Procurement: Energocom says it has contracted about 76% of gas needs for the 2026–2027 season and will secure storage by Nov. 1. Industry & Services: A Chisinau–Straseni–Calarasi water main is nearing completion (47+ km built) and Moldova will regulate the eCall 112 emergency system by law. Business & Consumer Policy: Online purchases via platforms like Temu will be taxed from Oct. 1 to level competition with local firms.

Local Industry Showcase: Moldova’s 2nd “Local Product” exhibition will run 28–30 August at Moldexpo, with 300+ producers, free entry, tastings and family programming, plus record attempts for the largest woven carpet (28 Aug) and the largest sour cherry pie (29 Aug). Rail Freight & Food Security: Moldova agreed to a 50% rail transit discount for Ukrainian food cargo through the end of 2026, aiming to move up to 600,000 tons by year-end and keep trade lanes open as Black Sea routes face disruption. Wine Exports Focus: The 11th National Wine Conference (25 Aug, Chisinau) will set priorities for the new wine year, including export competitiveness, finance and a push to consolidate the “Vinul Moldovei” brand. Black Sea Logistics Pressure: Attacks around Novorossiysk damaged grain terminals and disrupted operations, raising fears for global grain flows and pushing exporters to seek alternative routes. Energy Infrastructure Moves: Moldelectrica will be reorganized into a state-owned joint-stock company to meet EU-style independence requirements for grid modernization. Investment Rules Update: Government approved a draft Investment Law with clearer, more predictable conditions and a special regime for strategic projects. E-commerce Tax Change: Online purchases from platforms like Temu will be taxed starting 1 October to level competition for local businesses. Industrial Parks for Startups: Draft amendments allow startups to temporarily operate inside industrial parks under defined lease and eligibility rules. Road Construction Tender: ONUR is set to be recommended for the Cimișlia bypass contract (~€43.3M), despite an EBRD sanctions history tied to collusion in a Ukraine tender.

Rail Freight Boost: Moldova and Ukraine agreed a 50% cut on rail transit tariffs for Ukrainian cargo via CFM, effective Aug. 10 through end-2026, aiming to capture about 10% of Ukraine’s planned up to 6 million tons for 2026 and generate several million euros in revenue for the rail operator. Transport & Trade Links: Talks also continue on a temporary “solidarity corridor” tariff reduction for large volumes, with Kyiv weighing rail routes toward Romanian ports like Constanța as Black Sea shipping stays under pressure. Energy Governance: Moldelectrica will be reorganized into a state-owned joint-stock company to meet European Energy Community requirements and support modernization of the transmission grid. Infrastructure Progress: Work on the Ungheni bridge over the Prut reached 55%, with metal deck installation starting on the Moldovan side; the EU is funding the project via CEF. Disaster Readiness: Government approved a National Disaster Risk Reduction Program (2026–2030) focused on early warning, risk mapping, and climate-adapted agriculture. Digital Services: Moldova is piloting an online consumer complaints flow for defective products and expanding digital identity use in banking via the EVO wallet. Labor Integration: Over 23,000 residents from Transnistria were officially employed on the right bank in H1 2026, with most jobs concentrated in Chișinău and sectors like trade, construction, and manufacturing.